The bearish case…
The bullish case…
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Dear Reader,
The Gregorian calendar has scrolled to 2026 — for good — or ill.
As a keen observer of market affairs, I am duty-bound to hazard a 2026 market forecast… such as it is.
So today I fetch my crystal ball from storage, blow away the dust… and gaze for images of the year ahead.
How will the economy fare in 2026? The stock market? Gold? Oil? Bitcoin?
The answers, the guaranteed answers, anon.
Market observer Quoth the Raven — that is the fellow’s chosen handle — heavily out-excelled the S&P 500 in 2025.
The S&P 500 put in a 16.5% gain last year. Handsome!
Yet this Raven fellow’s 2025 stock picks turned in an index-trouncing 73% gain.
What does he divine for 2026?
Five Market Risks
Here are five risks confronting markets this year, in his telling:
The first risk heading into 2026 is the simplest and the most ignored: the American consumer is tapped out…
The second risk is valuation — and the growing gap between narrative and capital reality, especially around AI… The Shiller PE is now over 40x — insane…
The third risk is the slow erosion of the passive bid that has quietly propped up markets for over a decade… That bid weakens when people lose jobs. As layoffs accelerate, driven by both AI displacement and a slowing economy, contributions slow.
The fourth risk — and potentially the most dangerous — is crypto’s transformation from a self-contained speculative playground into a systemically wired asset class… With total crypto market capitalization hovering above $3 trillion, a 50% drawdown would vaporize roughly $1.5 trillion in wealth in a compressed timeframe.
The fifth risk is geopolitical… Something is shifting behind the scenes in the global monetary order, and the clues are showing up where they always do: in gold, in silver, and in behavior that no longer matches the official narrative…
This isn’t about an overnight collapse of the dollar or some cartoonish “end of reserve currency” moment. It’s about erosion, fragmentation, and parallel systems forming while markets remain fixated on tech multiples and rate-cut bingo cards.
I have observed many of these ominous straws swaying in the wind. I have climbed atop my roof and yelled warnings about them.
Yet I concede there are positive counter-currents running the opposite way. Perhaps they will wash away the gathering negative currents.
The Bullish Case for 2026
And this Raven fellow is not a resolute bear. Here he presents the bovine case, the bullish case:
My bull case for 2026 starts from an uncomfortable but, I think, realistic premise: nominal prices are biased higher over time because policymakers have no real exit from the debt and deficit spiral they created. Inflation isn’t an accident or a policy failure—it’s the release valve…
As long as that remains true, the long-term gravity for asset prices is upward, even if real returns are uneven and purchasing power quietly erodes. Betting against nominal asset inflation, indefinitely, has been a losing proposition for decades.
I agree. It has been a losing proposition for decades. Yet even the lengthiest trends prove mortal.
So now we come to my own tub-thumping predictions for 2026 — predictions guaranteed to knock you to the floor.
Three Stunning Predictions
Prediction No. 1:
In 2026 the stock market will rise. Or the 2026 stock market will fall. Or — or — it will conclude 2026 precisely where it began 2026.
Prediction No. 2:
Bitcoin, gold and oil will likewise rise, fall — or hold steady.
Prediction No. 3:
The economy will expand in 2026 — unless it contracts. Bear in mind: the economy may do neither.
There you have it… three thundering predictions for 2026.
I venture out upon the thin, thin branches and risk a horrible plummet if mistaken.
Yet recall your Latin: Audentes fortuna iuvat — Fortune favors the bold.
I implore you to invest your monies accordingly.
Updated Forecast
Yet upon deeper consideration, I alter my 2026 stock market prediction.
I do not retract it — but modify it.
In reminder, moments ago I stood resolute upon my bedrock… and argued:
In 2025 the stock market will rise. Or the 2025 stock market will fall. Or — or — it will conclude 2025 precisely where it began 2025.
Yet as the Kobeissi Letter reminds us:
US consumers are historically bullish on stocks:
In December, 52% of Americans expected higher stock prices over the next 12 months, one of the highest readings since this question was first asked in 1987.
Since April 2025, bullish sentiment has risen +15 points…
Meanwhile, only 24% of consumers expect lower stock prices over the next year, the lowest reading this year…
Bullish sentiment is through the roof.
Thus I believe stocks are in for heavy weather this year.
I am not convinced of it — false convictions have forced too much crow down my gullet across the years.
Yet I believe it.
That is because I am by nature distrustful of crowds.
The Boat Is Overloaded to One Side
When the crowd is loaded onto the boat’s starboard side, I jump instinctively to port — and vice versa.
And the crowd presently flocks on one side of the boat. I stand therefore upon the other side of the boat, by my lonesome self.
The solitary approach may be lonely. It may be worrisome — the human animal is a pack animal — he seeks the crowd’s safety.
Yet over time the solitary strategy, the contrarian strategy, has proven the sturdy strategy.
Not at all times, not in each instance. I will concede the rare exception.
Yet it is the overall dependable strategy.
And as economic commentator Bill Bonner likes to say:
“It is always dawnest before the dark.”
Skies are presently dawnest.
No One Will Remember My Forecast
What is the fantastic beauty of today’s forecast — from my perspective?
It is this: Not one reader will recall today’s forecast on Jan. 1, 2027.
He will no more recall it than what he munched for dinner Tuesday evening last.
Yet if my crystal-gazing proves true? Then this Nostradamus shall gloat forever and ever about his superior powers of divination.
I will never permit you to forget it — of that you may be certain.
Brian Maher
for Freedom Financial News
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