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On Wednesday, the Strait of Hormuz became a combat zone. Iran struck U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. The U.S. struck back. Trump stood at the NATO summit in Ankara and declared the ceasefire "over." Brent crude jumped $4 in about fifteen minutes.

Markets are pricing in risk. Most investors are watching the wrong number.

Inside today's issue:

WHAT HAPPENED

On June 17, the U.S. and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding to halt hostilities. Markets rallied. Oil fell back below $70. The Dow climbed toward 53,000. Most investors breathed out.

Then three ships got hit in the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. struck Iranian targets in retaliation. Iran launched drones and missiles at U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. At the NATO summit in Ankara on July 8, Trump told reporters: "I don't want to deal with them anymore." The Memorandum of Understanding signed three weeks earlier was done.

Brent crude jumped 5% to $80 a barrel. Treasury yields climbed as bond markets priced in renewed inflation pressure. Nine of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed lower on Wednesday. Industrials fell 3.4%. Materials fell 2.5%.

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of the world's traded oil. When it becomes a combat zone, prices don't wait for analysis.

You'd think the obvious play here is to load up on energy stocks. Hold that thought.

SPONSORED: PARADIGM PRESS

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Trump $2.7 Trillion Gold Mine

Executive Order #14153 outlines what Jim Rickards believes are Trump's intentions to unleash the largest mineral reserve in the country. Up to $2.7 trillion in gold, silver, copper, and other precious elements. This single company, trading for just $2 per share, holds 100% of the rights to this asset. You need to act before November 3.

Go Here to Get the Full Details Before This Stock Soars

THE INVESTOR ANGLE

Here is the part that matters.

Oil-shock events rarely stay contained in the energy sector. When Brent hits $80 after a ceasefire collapses, three things happen at once. Energy companies win on revenue. Inflation expectations rise. And the Fed, already holding the funds rate at 3.75% against a CPI of 4.2%, now has one more reason not to cut.

That is the toll-collector math. You do not need to pick which side wins the conflict. You need to hold assets that collect a piece of every barrel moving through the Strait. Real assets. Energy infrastructure. Commodity exposure that hedges against dollar debasement. The 10-year Treasury yield moved higher this week for exactly this reason.

Zoom out and the picture gets stranger. Nvidia lost $1 trillion in market value in under two months. SpaceX is trading below its IPO price three weeks after the biggest tech debut in years. And today, for the first time since 1971, a new national stock exchange goes live. The Texas Stock Exchange starts trading this morning, backed by Citadel, Goldman, JPMorgan, and Bank of America.

The old assumptions are cracking. Geopolitical risk is back in the price. Freedom-minded investors do not bet on political outcomes. They position in hard assets that win regardless of who controls the Strait.

Stay free.

Chris Carroll

Publisher, Freedom Financial News

QUICK HITS

Texas Stock Exchange Opens for Live Trading Today The Dallas-based TXSE, backed by Citadel, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America, launched live public trading this morning. It is the first new national stock exchange to challenge NYSE and Nasdaq in decades. Watch for listings to follow.

Jim Rickards Predicts: Trump's Next Big Buy This tiny $2 stock holds the exclusive rights to the largest gold reserve in the country. Jim Rickards believes Trump is about to take a direct stake in it. The window closes November 3.

Nvidia's $1 Trillion Slide Sends Valuation to Pre-AI Boom Levels After falling 16% from its May 14 all-time high, Nvidia now trades at 18x forward earnings. That is cheaper than Hershey and Dominion Energy. Morgan Stanley just named it the top semiconductor pick and called the valuation 'a surprisingly good entry point.'

Larry Benedict's Oil Skimming Strategy When the market crashed 37% in 2008, our friend Larry Benedict made $95 million for his clients. Now he says the oil market is creating one of the biggest opportunities in 40 years. And you don't need to own a single oil stock to profit.

SpaceX Hits All-Time Low as Blue Origin Raises at $130 Billion Valuation SpaceX (SPCX) dropped below its $150 IPO opening price just three weeks after its record-setting debut. Meanwhile, rival Blue Origin is raising $10 billion in fresh funding at a $130 billion valuation. Space is entering its competitive phase.

P.S. The space economy is entering its next phase — and it's not SpaceX. One company is quietly positioning itself to capture the infrastructure layer of low-earth orbit. Get the full briefing here

You might also be interested in:

Trump to Unleash Giant $2.7 Trillion Gold Mine? — Jim Rickards (Paradigm Press)

Trump Says U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Is Over After Traded Strikes (Time)

Beyond SpaceX: The Next Phase of America's Space Economy (Banyan Hill)

S&P 500 Ends Down After Trump Says Iran Deal Is Over (Reuters)

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